IRES Intelligence Platform (IIP)

IRES Intelligence Platform (IIP)

ANNUAL SURVEY PAPER 2024

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Table of contents

RARE EARTHS CRISIS

  • 30/09/2024

Rare earths* are a group of 17 chemical elements, used in high-tech devices, in renewable and clean energy industries (batteries, wind turbines) as well as in cutting-edge civil (consumer electronics, computers) and military technologies (lasers, radars, missile guidance systems, etc.).

The rare earths crisis is mainly the consequence of a virtual Chinese monopoly on the extraction of these materials. As early as 1927, China identified the economic potential of rare earths, before it began mining them in the 1960s. Classifying the industry as “critical” in 1990 1, China encouraged investment and restricted exports, while maintaining lax environmental standards and cheap labor 2.

In 2023, China held 44% of the world’s rare earth reserves, followed by Vietnam (22%), Brazil (22%) and Russia (21%). At that time, China produced over 70% of the world’s rare earths, against 14% for the USA, 6% for Australia and 4% for Burma 3.

Growing demand and limited supply of rare earths led to a crisis, the first signs of which became apparent in 2010 4, leading importing countries to seek alternatives to secure supply chains 5 and limit dependence on China 6,  with little success. Still today, the European Union is almost totally dependent on China for rare earth supplies.

According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for renewable energies is set to increase by a factor of 7 between 2020 and 2040 7, driving up demand for rare earths.

According to Morocco’s Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM), the Kingdom’s southern regions hold substantial rare earth resources. A roadmap for managing critical metal operations, to meet future challenges facing the sector 8, would help enable the sustainable extraction of these resources.

In this respect, Morocco should continue prospecting for rare earths throughout its territory, preserve strategic and critical ores and forge cooperative ventures to secure rare earths supplies for the clean energy industry, the energy transition, and beyond.

THAWING OF THE CRYOSPHERE

  • 30/09/2024

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 9, the thawing of the cryosphere* refers to the melting and contraction of the Earth’s ice and snow cover. These include ice sheets, ice shelves, sea ice (pack ice), permafrost*, mountain glaciers, continental snowpacks and seasonal snow.

Thawing of the cryosphere has a number of manifestations. These include accelerated melting of ice sheets, rising sea levels, disruption of ecosystems and habitats, increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, and disruption of hydrological cycles.

These different effects can also be interconnected. For example, melting glaciers disrupt hydrological cycles, leading to significant variations in water availability. Over the past 50 years, melting glaciers and reduced snow cover have led to a reduction in natural water reserves of some 27,000 billion cubic metres 10.

Rising permafrost temperatures also lead to increased release of methane and carbon dioxide 11.Melting permafrost in the northern hemisphere could also release some 800,000 tonnes of mercury by 2100 12. Mining opportunities opened up by thawing would also release ancient viruses and bacteria, creating the risk of disease outbreaks and pandemics.

The thawing of the cryosphere presents enormous environmental and health challenges. Measures to mitigate and adapt to this ongoing phenomenon are needed worldwide.

Morocco, with an arid to semi-arid climate, has no significant cryosphere. However, sea-level rises, caused by changes in the Earth’s cryosphere, accentuate the effects of coastal erosion and endanger Moroccan coastal towns, with two-thirds of the country’s beaches already affected 13.

Snow cover is also of vital importance to the geomorphology, hydrology and socio-economics of seven rain-fed watersheds 14. Climate change shortens the duration of mountain snow cover, jeopardizing the survival of mountain ecosystems and water resources.

Morocco should therefore devise and implement a strategy to adapt to the thawing of the cryosphere, drawing on all relevant stakeholders across the country.

DEEP SEA MINING

  • 30/09/2024

Deep Sea Mining (DSM) is the business of extracting minerals* and metals from the seabed*. This begins with prospecting and exploration and culminates in the refining of ores 15.

The drive to slash carbon emissions is driving up demand for vital elements of the energy transition, including copper, cobalt and nickel …. The International Energy Agency projects a thirty-fold increase in global demand for these minerals, used to power electric vehicles and battery storage, by 2040 16.

The International Seabed Authority (ISA), the body responsible for regulating seabed activities, has signed 31 exploration contracts with 22 public and private contractors 17. China, Russia, Japan, India, Norway, France and Germany are some of the countries in the running.

An international conference 18 was held in Kingston in July 2023, to draw up a mining code governing seabed mining, encompassing technology, finance and the environment. While no consensus was reached, a roadmap was nevertheless produced to implement the code by 2025.

An increasing number of governments19 and non-governmental organizations support moves towards a moratorium, precautionary break or ban on deep-sea mining, be it in international waters, national waters or both.

Mining the seabed successfully is a major challenge that calls for a combination of advanced technology, extensive scientific insight and proper regulation before it can be implemented.

Morocco, with both Atlantic and Mediterranean seaboards, has a 3,500 km coastline – the longest in Africa – and an exclusive economic zone* of over one million square kilometers. It could propose an African Union-level definition of pan-African legislation 20, for the sustainable exploitation of the continental submarine environment.

This binding regional framework would then be incorporated into the existing body of international regulations, forming a framework for blue diplomacy. It would include measures for international scientific cooperation, to leverage best practices in seabed management and mining.

REFERENCES

  1. Andrews-Speed, P., & Hove, A. (2023). China's rare earths dominance and policy responses (No. 7). OIES Paper : CE. Page 21. ISBN. 978-1-78467-208-9.
  2. Idem.
  3. Statista. (2024), article “les plus grandes réserves de terres rares selon le pays dans le monde 2023’’. Publié par Statista Department Research. Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : réserves mondiales de terres rares par pays 2023 | Statista.
  4. Fritz, S. E. (2023, 07 19), Revisiting the China-Japan Rare Earths dispute of 2010. Récupéré sur VOXEU CEPR. Consulted on October 1, 2024: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-earths-dispute-2010.
  5. Isetani, S., Shimizu, S., Dewit, A., & Shaw, R. (2022). Indo-Japanese Collaboration on Energy Security and Critical Raw Materials (CRM). Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, 20(18), Article 5755.
  6. Idem.
  7. Fritz, S. E. (2023, 07 19), Revisiting the China-Japan Rare Earths dispute of 2010. Récupéré sur VOXEU CEPR. Consulted on October 1, 2024: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-earths-dispute-2010.
  8. Conseil Economique, Social et Environnemental (CESE). Avis du CESE sur les minerais stratégiques et critiques contributeurs à la souveraineté industrielle du Maroc. Auto-saisine n°67/2023.
  9. Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat 2019- glossaire.
  10. Banque mondiale 2023. Article “ Le stockage de l’eau est au cœur de l’adaptation au changement climatique’’. Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : L'action climatique à l'œuvre | Le stockage de l’eau (banquemondiale.org)
  11. Nations Unies. (2022), ONU Info : article “ L'actualité mondiale : un regard humain’’ Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : https://news.un.org/fr/story/2022/02/1113532
  12. Ouranos. (2024), article “Pôle d'innovation et lieu de concertation permettant à la société québécoise de mieux s'adapter à l'évolution du climat’’. Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : Dégel du pergélisol - impacts | Ouranos
  13. OFFICE OF LEGAL AFFAIRS. (2021), Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of Morocco to the United Nations, 22 December 2021, Summary of practice related to sea-level rise
  14. Lahoucine HANICH. (2022), présentation intitulée “Suivi des ressources nivales sur les montagnes de l'Atlas marocain’’. Workshop de clôture du projet CHAAMS 4-5 juillet 2022, Toulouse.
  15. United Nations Environment Programme. (2024), Issues note, Deep-Sea Mining. https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/45494/deep_sea_mining.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
  16. IEA. (2022), “The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions”. Page 8.
  17. The International Seabed Authority (ISA). (2024), article “Exploration Contracts’’. https://www.isa.org.jm/exploration-contracts/
  18. The International Seabed Authority (ISA). (2024), Rapport sur la 28-ème Session décisions sélectionnées et documents. https://www.isa.org.jm/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Session_selected_decisions_28_FR.pdf
  19. La Coalition pour la conservation des grands fonds marins (DSCC). (2024), Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : https://deep-sea-conservation.org/solutions/no-deep-sea-mining/momentum-for-a-moratorium/governments-and-parliamentarians/
  20. IRES (2023). Rapport Stratégique L’OCEAN : ENJEU MONDIAL ET SOLUTION PLANETAIRE Page 187.
  1. Andrews-Speed, P., & Hove, A. (2023). China's rare earths dominance and policy responses (No. 7). OIES Paper : CE. Page 21. ISBN. 978-1-78467-208-9.
  2. Idem.
  3. Statista. (2024), article “les plus grandes réserves de terres rares selon le pays dans le monde 2023’’. Publié par Statista Department Research. Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : réserves mondiales de terres rares par pays 2023 | Statista.
  4. Fritz, S. E. (2023, 07 19), Revisiting the China-Japan Rare Earths dispute of 2010. Récupéré sur VOXEU CEPR. Consulted on October 1, 2024: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-earths-dispute-2010.
  5. Isetani, S., Shimizu, S., Dewit, A., & Shaw, R. (2022). Indo-Japanese Collaboration on Energy Security and Critical Raw Materials (CRM). Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, 20(18), Article 5755.
  6. Idem.
  7. Fritz, S. E. (2023, 07 19), Revisiting the China-Japan Rare Earths dispute of 2010. Récupéré sur VOXEU CEPR. Consulted on October 1, 2024: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-earths-dispute-2010.
  8. Conseil Economique, Social et Environnemental (CESE). Avis du CESE sur les minerais stratégiques et critiques contributeurs à la souveraineté industrielle du Maroc. Auto-saisine n°67/2023.
  9. Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat 2019- glossaire.
  10. Banque mondiale 2023. Article “ Le stockage de l’eau est au cœur de l’adaptation au changement climatique’’. Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : L'action climatique à l'œuvre | Le stockage de l’eau (banquemondiale.org)
  11. Nations Unies. (2022), ONU Info : article “ L'actualité mondiale : un regard humain’’ Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : https://news.un.org/fr/story/2022/02/1113532
  12. Ouranos. (2024), article “Pôle d'innovation et lieu de concertation permettant à la société québécoise de mieux s'adapter à l'évolution du climat’’. Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : Dégel du pergélisol - impacts | Ouranos
  13. OFFICE OF LEGAL AFFAIRS. (2021), Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of Morocco to the United Nations, 22 December 2021, Summary of practice related to sea-level rise
  14. Lahoucine HANICH. (2022), présentation intitulée “Suivi des ressources nivales sur les montagnes de l'Atlas marocain’’. Workshop de clôture du projet CHAAMS 4-5 juillet 2022, Toulouse.
  15. United Nations Environment Programme. (2024), Issues note, Deep-Sea Mining. https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/45494/deep_sea_mining.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
  16. IEA. (2022), “The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions”. Page 8.
  17. The International Seabed Authority (ISA). (2024), article “Exploration Contracts’’. https://www.isa.org.jm/exploration-contracts/
  18. The International Seabed Authority (ISA). (2024), Rapport sur la 28-ème Session décisions sélectionnées et documents. https://www.isa.org.jm/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Session_selected_decisions_28_FR.pdf
  19. La Coalition pour la conservation des grands fonds marins (DSCC). (2024), Consulté le 1er octobre 2024 à partir de : https://deep-sea-conservation.org/solutions/no-deep-sea-mining/momentum-for-a-moratorium/governments-and-parliamentarians/
  20. IRES (2023). Rapport Stratégique L’OCEAN : ENJEU MONDIAL ET SOLUTION PLANETAIRE Page 187.