IRES Intelligence Platform (IIP)

centered_logo-1

IRES Intelligence Platform (IIP)

iip-200x200 V2

ANNUAL SURVEY PAPER

Can a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas ?
Download (1 Mo)
2023

Governance : all collective action management processes, based on bottom-up stakeholder action and agent mobilization and motivation (concerted action, soft power).

Table of content

DIGITALIZING ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES

Digitalization*DéfinitionThe process of converting a task, profession, object, or tool into computer code with the aim of improving the performance of an organization, company, or administrative body. has swept across all sectors of human activity, including public services and administration. Public services are increasingly going digital, be it for offering general public services (taxes, civil status, administrative documents) or holding elections. France, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, and Singapore already lead the way in this area1.

Digitizing government services can significantly speed up administrative procedures, combat corruption and optimize public sector operations.

Morocco is committed to this approach, having implemented its national e-government strategy in 2009. The country began the digital transition of its administrative services in the wake of the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic in 20202.

Training the right human resources, significantly increasing connectivity by building high-speed networks, ensuring interoperability between government and public service information systems, developing sovereign clouds, and enhancing cybersecurity are all crucial to successfully completing this digital transition.

EXPONENTIAL PROLIFERATION OF NEWS SOURCES

Alongside conventional news channels, an entire nebula of unregulated content producers (websites, blogs, YouTube channels, …) has now emerged. The sheer number of  news sources*DéfinitionOrigin or reference from which data, facts, knowledge, or details can be obtained on a specific subject. There are three main categories: primary sources, secondary sources, and tertiary sources. worldwide has mushroomed with the Internet, and news-gathering speeds have almost doubled.

Yet while this proliferation of news sources brought benefits, notably diversified points of view, access to specialized information, and empowering individuals to express themselves, it has also brought challenges, including fake news, misinformation, the manipulation of public opinion, and making it increasingly difficult for individuals to sort out and gauge news quality. So-called “fake news” is a particularly good illustration of this.

Morocco is directly impacted by this trend, be it through locally-generated or imported fake news3. Awareness-raising campaigns, fact-checking initiatives, and regulatory measures are in place to encourage responsible news practices. But vigilance remains essential, particularly with regard to urban populations in constant contact with the outside world, and disadvantaged populations vulnerable to manipulation by extremist movements.

LOSING TRUST IN POLITICAL ELITES

The 1960s-1970s saw massive social movements and political protests unfold in a number of countries. A growing distrust of political elites has gained strength over the past decade. It is fuelled by political scandals and corruption, economic and social crises (2008), mass media and social networks.

Dissatisfaction with political elites has spread and is expressed through protests and civil disobedience action, spreading to all countries worldwide (2019). The OECD reported in 2022 that only 41% of member country citizens have confidence in public authorities5.

This breakdown of confidence in public players could bring radical political parties to power, potentially triggering sweeping general upheaval and leading to further mass civil protests, as was the case globally in 2019.

Institutional trust in Morocco, though improving slightly since 2011, struggles to take root in the forums of representative democracy, according to IRES6. This crisis of confidence is compounded by rampant inflation, eroding citizens’ purchasing power.

According to findings of the 2022 permanent household survey conducted by the High Commission for Planning, the Household Confidence Index has trended downwards since the second quarter of 2018, hitting its lowest level since the launch of the survey in 2008, in the fourth quarter of 2022.

POST-TRUTH

This describes a phenomenon whereby people are particularly likely to believe and propagate information that matches their own beliefs and prejudices, even if this information is inaccurate or misleading.

The roots of post-truth*DéfinitionRefers to circumstances in which objective facts carry less weight in shaping public opinion than appeal to emotion. can be traced back to 2003 when the USA offered false evidence to justify its invasion of Iraq7. Similar events – high-impact actions removed from objective facts – proliferated from 2016 onwards, climaxing in 2021 with the breaching of the U.S. Capitol and many anti-vaccination campaigns.

This gap between reality and narrative, when it becomes a tool of governance, creates difficult to counter adverse effects, particularly in economic and environmental terms8.

Post-truth issues do not directly impact Morocco today. The phenomenon does, however, have an impact on a number of its strategic allies, including the USA and Europe, and could potentially affect Morocco’s youth via social networks.

RADICALIZATION OF POLITICS

Political radicalization*DéfinitionThe process by which an individual or group gradually adopts extreme positions or ideologies that are at odds with the status quo and challenge conventional thinking. is a reality in many countries, with the rise of political extremes on both right and left (e.g. in France, with the rise of the “Rassemblement National” and “Les Insoumis”), along with the surge of populist and nationalist movements (e.g. Trumpism in the USA).

This radicalization is likely to lead to populist decision-making, negatively impacting progress on global issues such as climate9, international stability, gender equity10, and respect for minorities11, ….

Morocco side-stepped this wave of political radicalization because of its political system. But a few of its allies could be swept by it, with possible repercussions for relations with the Kingdom.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS CALLED INTO QUESTION

While challenges to, and calls for international institution reform are by no means a novelty, they have gained considerable momentum in recent decades.

Over the past decade, states such as the USA and Israel have gone so far as to leave long-standing international organizations such as WHO and UNESCO, while others, notably Ukraine, have officially called for UN reform12.

The loss of confidence in international institutions by global political players is likely to lead to a breakdown of the multilateral system as established in 1945. This could ultimately lead to a major reconfiguration of the world stage.

Morocco actively contributes to multilateralism and the international system. In the event of a reconfiguration of the latter, the Kingdom could find itself at the intersection of opposing blocs, alongside influential countries such as India, but neutral on a range of global issues.

WESTERN WITHDRAWAL

Western powers have gradually withdrawn from previous operating regions, such as Africa and the Middle East. The USA withdrawal from Afghanistan and France’s withdrawal from the Sahel signal an end to the “Western leadership” era, and the emergence of new players projecting global influence, such as China, Russia and India13.

The West’s withdrawal paves the way for major geopolitical upheavals, in the Middle East with the reconciliation of Iran and Saudi Arabia and the return of Syria to the Arab League, and in Africa with the proliferation of Russia’s Wagner group mercenaries.

As a Western ally and strategic partner to a number of emerging powers, Morocco must take its place in this new geopolitical landscape.

MASS SURVEILLANCE

Mass surveillance*DéfinitionAuthorities closely monitor entire populations, notably by tracking activity on electronic communication devices. refers to the systematic, large-scale collection of data and information on large numbers of people, often without specific targeting or individual justification.

Mass surveillance tools continue to proliferate, from satellites, cell phones and GPS to urban cameras, biometric systems, financial surveillance, e-mail and Internet monitoring, and social media infiltration.

It is essential to reconcile the need to ensure the safety and security of individuals (money laundering, terrorism, …) with the need to respect the privacy of citizens, jeopardized by the proliferation of surveillance tools.

Personal data protection is also an issue for Morocco, as its citizens may be subject to unwanted surveillance wherever they may be on the planet, via cell phone or Internet usage data collection. An assertive policy to protect individual rights would therefore prove useful.

Mass surveillance ©Getty – Leo Patrizi

Références

  1. World Bank Group. Europe and Central Asia Economic Update "Data, Digitalization, and Governance". Washington, DC : World Bank, 2021. License : CC BY 3.0 IGO.
  2. Head of Government. "General Guidelines for Digital Technology in Morocco to 2025". March 2020". March 2020.
  3. Mapnews. "Les médias au Maroc vivent au rythme d'une évolution numérique importante". Juillet 2020. Dernière consultation : le 25-07-202.
  5. OECD. "Building Trust to Strengthen Democracy: Key Findings from the OECD Survey 2021 on the Determinants of Trust in Public Institutions", OECD Publishing, Paris: 20224Edelman. "Edelman Trust Barometer 2022 : The Cycle of Distrust". 2022.
  6. Royal Institute for Strategic Studies, "Tableau de Bord Stratégique: 10th edition". October 2022: p. 135.
  7. Alterman, Eric. "When presidents lie: a history of official deception and its consequences", New York: Viking, 2004 ISBN: 0670032093.
  8. McIntyre, Lee. “Post-Truth”, The MIT Press, 2018. ISBN: 9780262535045.
  9. Han-Cheng Dai, Hai-Bin Zhang, Wen-Tao Wang. "The impacts of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost of China, EU, and Japan under the constraints of the global carbon emission space". Advances in Climate Change Research, Volume 8, Issue 4, 2017, Pages 226-234, ISSN 1674-9278, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.09.003.
  10. Supreme court of the United States. No. 19–1392. June 2022.
  11. Jaffrelot, Christophe. “Religion, Caste, and Politics in India”. C Hurst & Co. April 2011 ISSN: 9781849041379600.
  12. Marwecki, Daniel. “Why Did the U.S. and Israel Leave UNESCO?” E-International Relations. February 2019.
  13. Nakamoto, S. "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”. Bitcoin. 2009.